Key Takeaways:
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One Nation has achieved a record high primary vote of 27% in the latest Newspoll, positioning it second nationally.
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The Coalition has fallen to a record low primary vote of 18%, placing it third behind One Nation across multiple major polls.
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This shift fundamentally challenges the traditional Labor vs. Coalition two-party preferred contest, potentially ushering in a Labor vs. One Nation dynamic.
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One Nation's rise is attributed to a confluence of voter frustration, the impact of recent social events, and the Coalition's internal divisions.
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Leadership approval ratings show a significant decline for Coalition leader Sussan Ley, while One Nation's Pauline Hanson sees a remarkable surge in favourability.
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The consequences for the Coalition under a single-member electoral system are projected to be "brutal," with a struggle to secure even ten of the 150 House seats.
Newspoll Reveals Historic Political Realignment
The latest national Newspoll, conducted from February 5-8, delivers a stark picture of a dramatically altered Australian political environment. Labor holds a primary vote of 33% (up one point), while One Nation has surged to an unprecedented 27% (up five points) – a record high for the party. Conversely, the Coalition has slumped to a record low of 18% (down three points), finding itself in third place nationally. The Greens hold steady at 12%, with all Others at 10%.
This Newspoll result is not an isolated incident. Both Redbridge and Morgan polls from last week similarly placed One Nation ahead of the Coalition, by seven and 4.5 points respectively. This consistent trend suggests a fundamental reshaping of voter allegiances, where One Nation is now regularly outpolling the Coalition for second place in primary votes.
The Shifting Two-Party Landscape and Electoral Implications
The implications of the Coalition's fall to third place are profound, particularly within Australia's single-member electoral system for the House of Representatives. Analysts project a "brutal" outcome for a major party in such a position, with current polling suggesting the Coalition would struggle to secure even ten of the 150 House seats.
The traditional Labor vs. Coalition two-party preferred estimate has been complicated by this shift, with Newspoll not releasing one given the Coalition's diminished standing. Similarly, none of the three major polls in this article have released a Labor vs. One Nation two-party estimate. However, a late January YouGov poll indicated a 57-43 respondent-allocated preference lead for Labor over One Nation.
Analyst Kevin Bonham, utilising 2025 Senate preference flow data, projects Labor leading One Nation by 54.1-45.9, and the Coalition by 54.3-45.7. While Bonham himself cautions on the reliability of this method given the Coalition's unprecedented vote drop, these figures suggest that Labor might hold an advantage even if One Nation becomes its primary challenger.
Redbridge and Morgan Polls Affirm Trends
Further underscoring the Newspoll findings, the Redbridge and Accent Research poll (January 22-29) for The Financial Review reported Labor at 34% (down one), One Nation at 26% (up nine), and the former Coalition parties at 19% (down seven). The Morgan poll (January 26-February 1) also reflected these movements, with Labor at 30.5% (steady), One Nation at 25% (up 2.5), and the Coalition at 20.5% (down two).
The consistency across these independent polling organisations confirms a significant and sustained shift in voter preference away from the traditional Coalition and towards One Nation. Morgan's four January polls highlight this trajectory clearly: One Nation rose from 15% to 25%, while the Coalition fell from 30.5% to 20.5% in the same period.
Factors Fueling One Nation's Rise and Coalition's Decline
The analysis points to several contributing factors behind One Nation's ascent. Prior to the December 14 Bondi terrorist attacks, the party had already seen its support grow from 6.4% at the last election into the high teens, attributed to frustration among right-wing voters with Labor's electoral victory and perceived weaknesses in Sussan Ley's leadership.
The Bondi attacks appear to have amplified One Nation's anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim messaging, propelling its support into the 20s. The subsequent internal split within the Coalition on January 22, despite its recent reformation, seems to have solidified One Nation's position ahead on primary votes, with many traditional Coalition voters potentially seeking an alternative.
Potential Challenges and Scrutiny for One Nation
While One Nation leader Pauline Hanson's net favourability surged an impressive 16 points to -3 in the Redbridge poll, this heightened profile is likely to bring increased scrutiny. As a party seen as a potential major contender, One Nation's policies and leadership will undoubtedly face more rigorous examination from both the media and Labor.
One Nation's positioning further to the right than the Coalition could present its own challenges. A key factor in Labor's previous electoral success was a perception that the Coalition was too closely aligned with US President Donald Trump. With Trump's net favourability among Australians at a deeply negative -51 in the Redbridge poll, a strongly pro-Trump party may struggle to gain widespread national appeal, particularly with the next Australian federal election due before the next US presidential election.
Leadership Approvals and Demographic Divides
In terms of leadership, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval saw a slight improvement of one point to -10. However, Sussan Ley's net approval slumped a significant 11 points to a new low of -39, marking the worst result for a major party leader in Newspoll since Simon Crean in 2003. Albanese continued to lead Ley as 'better PM' by 49-30.
Redbridge also highlighted a broader trend: while Albanese and Ley both saw declines in net favourability, Hanson's surge was notable. Demographic breakdowns from Morgan polls reveal Labor leading the Coalition in all states, reclaiming a 51-49 lead in Queensland. Labor also leads significantly with women (56-44) and younger demographics (18-34 at 65.5-34.5). The Coalition only maintains a lead among those aged 65 and older (58-42). One Nation's support was highest in New South Wales at 25.5%, exceeding its traditional Queensland stronghold (24%), and peaked with those aged 50-64 at 27%.
Public Sentiment
The current polling environment reflects a potent mix of public sentiment:
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"There's a palpable frustration brewing among the electorate, especially on the right, signaling a deep dissatisfaction with the traditional Liberal-National offering and a desire for more decisive action on issues like immigration."
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"The Coalition's internal struggles and perceived lack of strong leadership appear to be directly impacting their standing, leading many voters to seek alternatives that offer clearer, if more polarising, positions."
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"While Labor seems to benefit from the Coalition's turmoil, the emergence of One Nation as a significant force introduces an unpredictable element, suggesting that the upcoming election will be less about the traditional two-party dynamic and more about navigating complex preference flows and a fragmented right-wing vote."
Conclusion
The confluence of factors – public frustration, significant social events, and internal party divisions – has irrevocably altered the Australian political landscape. One Nation's unprecedented surge, coupled with the Coalition's historic decline, signifies a dramatic recalibration of voter preferences. The traditional fight for government is now fraught with new variables, demanding that all major parties reassess their strategies. The next federal election will not merely be a contest between Labor and the Coalition but a complex dance involving a resurgent One Nation, testing the enduring strength of established political loyalties and the future direction of Australia.